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Formula One
SPECIAL: F1’s Winter Championship, Reloaded
RACER's Cassio Cortes makes championship predictions based on the winter testing data.
Kevin Krefting  |  Posted March 04, 2008   Sao Paulo, Brazil
It was just like old times as Hamilton topped Alonso. (LAT photo)

It’s Spain and it’s cold but not as cold as Britain or Germany, so it must be Formula 1 winter testing time. These past two months, as usual, F1 teams pounded for miles and miles on empty tracks, perfecting their new 2008 challengers ahead of the Australian Grand Prix season opener in a fortnight’s time.

As usual, testing means nothing in terms of performance, except when it does. While most key F1 figures are quick to dismiss the relevance of winter’s timesheets, the fact of the matter is that roughly one year ago, when we first analyzed on SPEEDtv.com the results of 2007 preseason testing, we were able to come to interesting conclusions such as then-reigning-champions Renault’s lack of a single chart-topping performance being “intriguing” and Honda’s positions promising a “dismal” season. We also noted Ferrari and McLaren’s dominance, BMW’s impressive pace and Lewis Hamilton’s matching of Fernando Alonso’s performance… Only to throw that quasi-perfect record of predictions by naming Felipe Massa the likeliest ’07 champ.

Well then, the system’s not foolproof but it does produce a useful pool of date to mull over. In 2008, a total of 18 group tests attended by four or more manufacturer teams with their ’08 cars took place, from January 14 at Jerez de la Frontera to February 27 at Barcelona’s Circuit de Catalunya (as last year, we focus on the automaker-backed squads as privateers, Williams and Red Bull’s strong showings so far notwithstanding, have a snowball’s chance in hell of emerging as constructor’s champions).

Looking at those 18 dates as a “mini-season”, Hamilton emerges as the winningest driver with five “victories” in 12 appearances, a winning ratio of nearly 42%. Massa comes second with three “wins” in 10 showings, while reigning champion Kimi Raikkonen, new McLaren recruit Heikki Kovalainen and Red Bull’s Mark Webber all count two. Since the days in which teams evaluate all-out qualifying performance varies, several drivers who are unlikely to score actual wins in the real season did so in winter testing: Toyota’s Jarno Trulli and Timo Glock got one apiece, as did Williams’ Kazuki Nakajima and Nico Rosberg, Toro Rosso’s Sebastian Vettel (leading a one-two with teammate Sebastien Bourdais, no less, at Barcelona on February 2) and arguably the biggest question mark of the upcoming season, Renault’s Fernando Alonso.

Taking “podiums” into consideration, Hamilton again’s the leader with eight, versus seven for Raikkonen, six for Kovalainen and five for Massa. Nakajima and Webber each pulled the feat four times.

Other noteworthy facts: while Trulli and Glock each got only a single “podium”, the Italian ended up with the fastest overall preseason time in Barcelona, widely regarded as the “benchmark” track, both for its demanding characteristics and the fact it’s the most used by teams, who know it better than any other circuit. Trulli’s chart-topping performance came on the very last day of testing, only a couple of days after he was quoted on the Italian press saying the team had found a “major breakthrough” to improve the TF108’s pace.
Apparently, Honda should be readying for another world of hurt in '08... (LAT Photo)

Also, last year’s clear third force, BMW, scored no “wins” and just two “podiums”, both with Robert Kubica. Ever since the F1.08’s debut, the Pole and teammate Nick Heidfeld have complained of a harder car to drive in comparison to its predecessor, although both men have been quick to praise the squad’s more aggressive approach in order to challenge Ferrari and McLaren for wins. But thus far, to an outside observer at least, it does seem that the shot may have backfired.

Honda’s pace appears to continue “dismal”, Ross Brawn and all, with Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello posting no top-threes. Renault also seems not to have achieved the quantum leap in performance needed to return the team to its 2005-6 form, with Alonso managing three “podiums” and new racer Nelson Piquet Jr. none.

It’s also important to note that unlike last year, when the Bahrain testing week was attended by all squads bar Williams and then-Spyker-now-Force-India, only Ferrari and Toyota chose to bask in the Middle Eastern sun in ’08, for five consecutive days, a factor that does eschew our statistics.

Still, all maybes, ifs and buts aside, it does seem evident that McLaren and Ferrari will again be the squads to beat in ’08, with the silver team looking slightly ahead in terms of pace, but most likely with a given circuit’s characteristics lending the upper hand to each team on different weekends. Warning lights should be flashing at BMW and Renault, with Williams, Red Bull and Toyota looking so far stronger to fight for best-of-the-rest honors, especially in the first races of the year (Williams and Red Bull, with their smaller budgets, would tend to develop at a slower pace than the manufacturer squads). Oh, and Honda should be readying for a world of hurt.

And though our record of predicting champions currently reads as oh-for-one, we’ll do it again regardless: our paltry money is on Hamilton for 2008. Beginning in less than two weeks in Melbourne, you’ll know how smart (or dumb) we look.

Care to draw your own conclusions? Peek at the full “Winter Championship” results on the next page:
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