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Formula 1
HOBBS: Hard To Predict A Winner In Spain
It's anyone's guess who will prevail this weekend in Barcelona...
Germans Michael Schumacher (Left) and Sebastian Vettel (Right) have combined to win nine World Championships. (Photo: LAT Photographic)
The 2012 Formula One season has been such a fascinating one thus far that it was a bit disappointing to have a couple of weeks off since Bahrain.
We have witnessed extraordinary swings of fortune among certain teams, and the challenge at the top of the point standings is thrillingly close. Featuring four different winners among four different makes of cars, not to mention a close constructor’s championship battle, Formula One has been interesting and unpredictable in 2012.
The intrigue continues this weekend in the Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona.
No single team has charged forward this year to dominate the sport, so predicting a winner in Barcelona is an arduous task. However, I’d give a slight advantage to Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber of Red Bull. Vettel’s car put on a strong showing at Bahrain, and fortunately for him, Red Bull usually runs well in Spain. He won there in 2011, as did Mark Webber one year prior.
Furthermore, momentum could play a role this weekend. Vettel occupied the fifth spot in the championship heading into Bahrain, where he won the race, besting usual suspects Lewis Hamilton, Jenson Button and Fernando Alonso, and capped the weekend atop the point standings. It was an outstanding drive on Vettel’s part, despite legitimate challenges by the Lotuses of Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean.
However, could Alonso be inspired by the hometown crowd in Spain and surge to the win over the Red Bull group? Some drivers stage outstanding performances in front of their home crowds, and I’m sure Alonso would love to showcase the improved Ferrari at Barcelona. While some drivers run exceptionally well in their hometowns, there are those like Button and me who don’t necessarily fall into that category. Button and I have had very poor luck at Silverstone over the years.
So, Sunday’s Spanish Grand Prix could be anyone’s game considering the way this season has unfolded. However, the track favors a car with good straight-line speed because of the very long straights. McLaren and Lotus have fared well in this department this season, while Red Bull traditionally has not. But once you get past that longest straight, Red Bull tends to shine. Handling is at a premium, and aerodynamics and downforce also are vital.
The winning driver must demonstrate the ability to conserve his car and avoid the drop-off period early on. Turns three and four at Barcelona are very demanding and long. They tend to shred tires, so smoothness behind the wheel and tire conservation are crucial, particularly in light of the high rate of wear on the Pirelli tires this season. Oddly enough, no one has set himself apart this year in tire management, although Hamilton has done a better job than in years past. Turns three and four at Barcelona are demanding, long corners that tend to shred tires, so keep an eye on that part of the circuit.
Since there really are only two good overtaking spots on the track, strong straight-line speed must go hand-in-hand with good grip. If a driver doesn’t qualify well, he must exhibit straight-line performance and have the grip to overtake the competition to work his way through the field.
But all that aside, a simple look at past race results in Spain underscores Michael Schumacher as a favorite by virtue of his six wins. He has performed exceedingly well at Barcelona and might be a pretty good bet there yet again with Mercedes’ strength of late, especially in the win with Nico Rosberg in China. We also must give a nod to Ferrari, which did fairly well at the Mugello test last week, so Alonso could creep into the picture again.
Finally, Vettel and Hamilton staged a phenomenal battle for the win at Barcelona last year, and Hamilton would like nothing more than to replay that scene; this time coming out ahead at the checkered flag.
The field is set and the winner is anyone’s guess.
The opinions reflected herein are solely those of the above commentator and are not necessarily those of SPEED.com, FOX, NewsCorp, or SPEED
We have witnessed extraordinary swings of fortune among certain teams, and the challenge at the top of the point standings is thrillingly close. Featuring four different winners among four different makes of cars, not to mention a close constructor’s championship battle, Formula One has been interesting and unpredictable in 2012.
The intrigue continues this weekend in the Spanish Grand Prix in Barcelona.
No single team has charged forward this year to dominate the sport, so predicting a winner in Barcelona is an arduous task. However, I’d give a slight advantage to Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber of Red Bull. Vettel’s car put on a strong showing at Bahrain, and fortunately for him, Red Bull usually runs well in Spain. He won there in 2011, as did Mark Webber one year prior.
Furthermore, momentum could play a role this weekend. Vettel occupied the fifth spot in the championship heading into Bahrain, where he won the race, besting usual suspects Lewis Hamilton, Jenson Button and Fernando Alonso, and capped the weekend atop the point standings. It was an outstanding drive on Vettel’s part, despite legitimate challenges by the Lotuses of Kimi Raikkonen and Romain Grosjean.
However, could Alonso be inspired by the hometown crowd in Spain and surge to the win over the Red Bull group? Some drivers stage outstanding performances in front of their home crowds, and I’m sure Alonso would love to showcase the improved Ferrari at Barcelona. While some drivers run exceptionally well in their hometowns, there are those like Button and me who don’t necessarily fall into that category. Button and I have had very poor luck at Silverstone over the years.
So, Sunday’s Spanish Grand Prix could be anyone’s game considering the way this season has unfolded. However, the track favors a car with good straight-line speed because of the very long straights. McLaren and Lotus have fared well in this department this season, while Red Bull traditionally has not. But once you get past that longest straight, Red Bull tends to shine. Handling is at a premium, and aerodynamics and downforce also are vital.
The winning driver must demonstrate the ability to conserve his car and avoid the drop-off period early on. Turns three and four at Barcelona are very demanding and long. They tend to shred tires, so smoothness behind the wheel and tire conservation are crucial, particularly in light of the high rate of wear on the Pirelli tires this season. Oddly enough, no one has set himself apart this year in tire management, although Hamilton has done a better job than in years past. Turns three and four at Barcelona are demanding, long corners that tend to shred tires, so keep an eye on that part of the circuit.
Since there really are only two good overtaking spots on the track, strong straight-line speed must go hand-in-hand with good grip. If a driver doesn’t qualify well, he must exhibit straight-line performance and have the grip to overtake the competition to work his way through the field.
But all that aside, a simple look at past race results in Spain underscores Michael Schumacher as a favorite by virtue of his six wins. He has performed exceedingly well at Barcelona and might be a pretty good bet there yet again with Mercedes’ strength of late, especially in the win with Nico Rosberg in China. We also must give a nod to Ferrari, which did fairly well at the Mugello test last week, so Alonso could creep into the picture again.
Finally, Vettel and Hamilton staged a phenomenal battle for the win at Barcelona last year, and Hamilton would like nothing more than to replay that scene; this time coming out ahead at the checkered flag.
The field is set and the winner is anyone’s guess.
The opinions reflected herein are solely those of the above commentator and are not necessarily those of SPEED.com, FOX, NewsCorp, or SPEED
Grand Prix of Bahrain
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