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COOPER: Home Stretch
There is still a long way to go until Sebastian Vettel wins a third consecutive title, and things could still start to go wrong...
Adam Cooper  | http://www.speedtv.com  |  Posted October 26, 2012   New Delhi (IND)
Sebastian Vettel is bidding for a third straight World Championship. (Photo: LAT Photographic)
The battle for the 2012 World Championship enters the home stretch in India this weekend, and with four races in five weekends things will no doubt move on very quickly – as indeed they have over the past three races.

It doesn’t seem so long ago that we were all getting excited about the impending climax to the championship, with a showdown in Brazil seemingly inevitable. The big story was could Fernando Alonso hang on in the lead in the face ever increasing pressure from Lewis Hamilton? The McLaren man seemed to be the man most likely to achieve the task of catching Alonso, given his team’s superb run of form – a streak that saw it achieve four pole positions in a row between Hungary and Singapore.

Just a few weeks ago Sebastian Vettel seemed like the outsider, but three amazing wins in as many races have turned the championship on its head. When the German edged past Alonso to claim the championship lead in Korea, there was a feeling of inevitability about the paddock – having nosed ahead, and in such decisive style, he seemed to have one hand on the title already. Never mind a showdown in Brazil, mathematically he could even put the matter beyond doubt in Abu Dhabi, depending on how luck favored Alonso.

Red Bull is always very coy about its car development, but there’s no doubt that the RB8 made a step forward in Singapore. The media eventually caught up with the double DRS system that gave it a straight line boost in qualifying, but clearly downforce also came as part of the package, as a somewhat bemused Hamilton noted in Japan.

The car is now as strong as its predecessor was in 2011, and in Vettel’s hands, it’s a potent weapon. Even last year he didn’t manage to win four races in a row, which is what he’s gunning for this weekend. He dominated practice today, although afterwards he insisted that it was a little too early to start making predictions.

Of course there is still a long way to go until he wins a third consecutive title, and things could still start to go wrong for Vettel. He’s had three near perfect weekends, and led an astonishing 145 consecutive laps since Hamilton retired in Singapore, so you could say he’s due some bad luck.

“It’s going to be about getting the most out of the next four weekends,” said Christian Horner today. “It’s going to be about being reliable, it’s going to be about being quick, it’s going to be about not making mistakes, and optimizing the package that you have throughout a Grand Prix weekend. It’s set to be a fascinating run-in to the championship over the next four races. I think we’re set for a real spectacle over the next four events. I’m sure it will go all the way down to the wire...”

Horner was understandably keen to play down the team’s apparent advantage, and most people agree that the title is now Vettel’s to lose. Having said that McLaren has demonstrated how quickly fortunes can change.

The team looked awesomely strong with that run of poles, but it’s all fallen apart since Singapore. The gearbox failure there and suspension problems that ruined his weekends in Japan and Korea have derailed Hamilton’s season. In the middle of it came all the turbulence associated with the news of his departure from the team, and as hard as everyone tries to insist that everything is normal, it clearly isn’t the same.

Team boss Martin Whitmarsh says all McLaren can do is focus on winning races.

“I think it’s really business as usual,” he said today. “We have four races, and we have to try to do the best job we can. We come to every Grand Prix seeking to win, and we’ll be doing nothing different in these last four races.

“It’s an incredibly competitive season as we’ve had ups and downs. I think we’ve underperformed in the last couple of Grands Prix, so that gives you a bit of pain, but it also gives you some determination to do something better in the last four races. So, I think it’s been an interesting season and there’s no reason to suppose it’s going to stop being one for a few races to come yet.”

Ferrari and Alonso are still in the fight, and given Hamilton’s drop-off in the table, he is the one man who realistically could yet beat Vettel. The team lost its way a little on development after the summer break, in large part due to problems with the Maranello wind tunnel, and Alonso has made no secret of his frustration at the lack of new stuff, or at least effective new stuff, coming along.

Having said that Fernando seemed reasonably happy today, when he was third fastest. It’s not qualifying, but he’s often started lower than that this year and come away with a good helping of points. He’s not giving up, and nor is the team.

“At the moment we are behind and we need to fight believing that it is possible,” said Stefano Domenicali. “Because that’s the spirit I want to see within the team. And when I speak about the team I speak about everyone but I’m sure that is really what I feel walking around the garage and also in Maranello. We know that is a very tough job but that is part of the game.

“If you think where we were the first day of testing, and where we are now after a lot of months, I think that we need to be in one sense not happy but on the other hand very proud of what we did – because the first day when we shake down the car in Jerez was very worrying. So, I just recall my guys, to make sure we keep the momentum with the positive attitude up until the end, and then we will see.

“If, in this case Sebastian – or another one, because as we always say, up to the moment where the classification is finished, we need to respect everyone – will win, they will deserve it, and we need to make sure that we will congratulate them. But up to that moment we will make sure we will fight with every resource we have up until the end.”

Did his first lap retirements in Belgium and Japan use up Alonso’s quota of bad luck – and is it time for Vettel to lose a little of the momentum he has established? Only time will tell...

Adam Cooper notched up his 27th season as a racing journalist in 2011. He has written about F1 for SPEED.com since 2005. Follow him on Twitter.

The opinions reflected herein are solely those of the above commentator and are not necessarily those of SPEED.com, FOX, NewsCorp, or SPEED
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