COOPER: Silly Season In Full Swing

Formula 1

COOPER: Silly Season In Full Swing

Will Lewis Hamilton join Mercedes? Could Michael Schumacher return to Ferrari? The possibilities are endless...

Adam Cooper | http://www.speedtv.com | Posted September 08, 2012 Monza (ITA)

Michael Schumacher (Left) and Lewis Hamilton (Right) could both be on the move next year. (Photo: Getty Images)

I wrote earlier this week that it was about time that the F1 silly season kicked off, and that Michael Schumacher will be at the heart of it – and sure enough over the past few days the rumor mill has been in overdrive.

We’ve known for months that, among the top teams, Schumacher, Felipe Massa and Lewis Hamilton are all out of contract as of the Brazilian GP, so Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren are all potentially ripe for change.

The story of Hamilton’s drawn out negotiations with McLaren has been dragging on for some time, with the team keen to commit him to a smaller salary than the one he had been used to, thanks to the realities of the economic climate.

From next year, McLaren has to pay for its Mercedes engines, and costs are certain to rise substantially the year after as the V6 turbos and their associated technologies come on stream. Meanwhile, title sponsor Vodafone is said to be scaling back its involvement. In other words, the team is less inclined to spend a major chunk of its budget on drivers.

Both parties have implied in recent weeks that a deal will eventually be done, and that seemed like a logical conclusion to their stand-off, given that we have always viewed Lewis as a McLaren man to the core.

Then hot on the heels of his controversial weekend in Spa – where he got into trouble with his team for Tweeting a telemetry print out – Eddie Jordan put the cat amongst the pigeons by telling the BBC website that Lewis was on his way to Mercedes.

Eddie is something of a loose cannon in his current role as a TV pundit, and of course he loves the attention that it generates when he gets his quotes into the media. But sometimes he does hit the sweet spot with a bit of gossip. So could he be right?

Certainly, it’s the duty of Hamilton’s management to cast around the paddock and see what opportunities might be out there, if only to indicate to McLaren that he does have alternatives.

For Lewis, a move to Mercedes is not without logic. Of the other top teams, Red Bull is full and a reunion with 2007 teammate Fernando Alonso at Ferrari makes little sense, given that the team is so politically charged and Alonso has been something of a calming influence at Maranello.

So that leaves Mercedes. Lewis knows the company well, as it was always involved to some degree in his apprenticeship while he was a McLaren young driver. That extended to a direct involvement when he used Mercedes power in EuroSeries F3, supporting the DTM. And Mercedes was a shareholder in McLaren when he was handed a F1 seat in 2007, and when he won the championship in 2008.

So that relationship, something Lewis doesn’t enjoy with Ferrari or Red Bull or Lotus, does at least facilitate a conversation. But why Mercedes? There’s no escaping the fact that the team has won only one race this year, but what matters is the potential. Ross Brawn has put together a stellar team with Bob Bell, Aldo Costa and Geoff Willis, all technical directors elsewhere in their own right. It came together quite late relative to the gestation of the current car, but those guys have gotten used to working together as they prepare the 2013 contender, so in theory, the W04 should be a better package.

More importantly as the 2014 turbo era approaches, the more experience and knowledge in the camp, the better. At the moment it may look like Mercedes has too many chiefs, but that will pay dividends when you want a top guy to spearhead the 2014 project in parallel with the design of the 2013 model.

And then there’s the money. Lewis said in Spa that he would be making a “business decision,” which was a fascinating comment. It would be silly to suggest that he would be drive a HRT if the money was better than at McLaren. But Mercedes has enough potential that if he views the teams as equally competitive propositions, and has to make a call, he might as well go for the money. It’s also a question of respect – no driver wants to be seen to take a pay cut, and presumably he feels that McLaren might be taking him a little for granted.

There’s no doubt that it would probably also do him good to move to a new environment. Schumacher and Alonso both grew up with Benetton/Renault under Flavio Briatore, and moved on to new challenges – although in the Spaniard’s case, it backfired! But perhaps it will be of benefit to Lewis just to go somewhere else, start afresh, and work with new people.

Jenson Button stunned everyone when he made a similar decision late in 2009. He won the title with Brawn, a team he’d been with for years under its various guises. But he thought McLaren would be a more exciting challenge.

However, when he recalled that on Thursday, he admitted change could be good but hedged his bets, and said he wouldn’t want to leave McLaren – but then he’s not been there as long as Lewis.

“I think for all of us, if you’re in the same place for too long, it can get a bit stale, but not here,” he said. “It’s a great team and a team that’s always giving us an opportunity to fight for wins. Whether we’ve had a chance to fight for the World Championship, that’s another question, but they always give you the possibility of winning Grands Prix, and that’s what a driver wants. But also a driver likes excitement and adrenaline and new challenges, and that’s the reason why I came here in the first place.

“I don’t think anything will change in terms of driver lineups, but I might be wrong.”

McLaren's Lewis Hamilton is not ruling out a switch to a rival team for 2013. (Photo: LAT Photographic)

The appeal of Hamilton to Mercedes is obvious, but the complication is what that means for Schumacher. If Michael has decided to retire for a second time, and has already communicated that decision to the team, then it’s a no-brainer. Brawn has to get the best possible replacement both for competitive reasons, and to encourage the somewhat cautious Mercedes board to keep funding the project. With due respect to Paul Di Resta, Nico Hulkenberg and other potential replacements, they are not yet proven champions with a worldwide following.

A lot of people think that Michael has made that decision, but what if he hasn’t? Given that Nico Rosberg is signed up for the long term and has been touted as the future of the team, we have to assume that Michael will be the one making space. So then it comes down to whether he wants to stop or will, after some delicate discussions, be persuaded to stop.

It’s no secret that in 2006 Ferrari pushed him in that direction as Kimi Raikkonen was already signed, and Felipe Massa represented the future. Michael always said he stopped in large part to ensure his pal Felipe still had a job, but clearly as the years went by he regretted it. How can Mercedes be seen to be encouraging him into retirement without a huge PR backlash?

Michael apparently has a contract that pays him a substantial sum to be a Mercedes brand ambassador when he stops driving, and it’s not hard to see him slipping into some kind of roving management role at Mercedes, although he seemed a little uncomfortable when he had a similar job at Ferrari in 2007 and beyond.

It’s also been suggested that Michael could stay on alongside Lewis, and that despite his ongoing contract, Rosberg will in effect swap with his former karting teammate and go to McLaren. Rosberg/Button would be a pretty good lineup, and it answers the other question of who McLaren might take should Lewis leave.

Otherwise, it’s the usual suspects – guys like Di Resta and Hulkenberg, while some have even suggested Williams third driver Valtteri Bottas. There’s some good potential there, of course, but Rosberg is a proven frontrunner with a lot of experience, and he would fit in nicely. He’s also been low maintenance, and without the theatrics that always seem to accompany Lewis, there could be a lot less stress in the camp.

The slightly more surreal option is that Michael goes elsewhere and extends his remarkable career. Ferrari needs a driver for 2013, so why not?

If Ferrari does finally kick Massa out – and a lot of people are starting to believe that the Brazilian will be given yet another chance – then the Italian team has to find a suitable replacement.

A Michael return is a crazy idea in some ways, and a Ferrari insider told me that the team might as well try to bring back Alberto Ascari.

But I’ve learned over the years that anything is possible. The day Massa crashed in Hungary in 2009 I suggested on this website that Michael should come back and deputize for him. Everybody I mentioned my theory to, and I mean everybody, laughed at the idea. A few days later it became a serious prospect.

The prospect of a 44-year-old Michael heading into a final season or two at Maranello is a fascinating one, and he surely can’t do a worse job than Massa. He also might be keen to sample the turbo era, and be part of the development of the new project.

Whether the team could cope with two superstars is a different matter. One could assume that the job description is slightly different from that of its rivals, in that the team does not necessarily need or want an established winner, but rather just needs some solid and unthreatening support for Alonso.

Clearly there are a couple of golden opportunities out there for someone, should Schumacher and Massa both disappear from the picture. The bottom line is that none of us can accurately predict what will happen, and I think the teams themselves don’t know which way the wind is blowing, and are keeping their options open. It’s going to be fascinating to see how it all unfolds.

Adam Cooper notched up his 27th season as a racing journalist in 2011. He has written about F1 for SPEED.com since 2005. Follow him on Twitter.
The opinions reflected herein are solely those of the above commentator and are not necessarily those of SPEED.com, FOX, NewsCorp, or SPEED