COOPER: Back To Business In Belgium

Formula 1

COOPER: Back To Business In Belgium

After a lengthy summer break, Formula One returns to action this weekend at Spa-Francorchamps...

Adam Cooper | http://www.speedtv.com | Posted August 29, 2012 Balen (BEL)

Fernando Alonso is a double World Champion chasing title number three. (Photo: LAT Photographic)

Given that this season features a record-breaking 20 races, it still amazes me that Bernie Ecclestone managed to create a summer break in the middle of it that has stretched over four weekends. It’s starting to seem like it was a little too long, and I am sure, like me, all of you are keen to see some F1 action again, now that Olympic Games fever has faded away a little.

Of course, it has been good to wind down and spend time with the family, especially with the upcoming marathon of nine races in 13 weekends, of which seven involve flights outside Europe. I organize and pay for my own travel, so it was with some relief that yesterday I booked the last of my tickets for 2012, after endless surfing around airline websites. For me, those last seven races involve no fewer than 19 flights, and no doubt there will be a little jet lag along the way.

The other regular headache is visas, and, knock on wood, it looks like I’m sorted until the end of the year. Journalists are one of the few categories who require a special visa to enter the United States, and my task for this morning was to get that organized, which is not the work of a moment. With luck, I’m now good for the 10 F1 races due to be held in the United States between now and 2017.

Perhaps not surprisingly, during the break I opted to avoid airport queues, and went instead by road to Scotland. I saw some magnificent scenery on my travels, and visited some pretty remote places, even by Scottish standards. Indeed, when I told Dario Franchitti and Paul Di Resta earlier this year that I would be visiting their home country, the region I mentioned didn’t even register with them!

Of course it’s hard to escape my day job on holiday. Last year in Sweden our touring route just ‘happened’ to include pilgrimages to three race circuits (that didn’t go down too well), and this time I did fit in one little racing landmark in the form of the house in which Jackie Stewart was born, just north of Glasgow. Alas, plans to visit the tiny Jim Clark museum in Duns on the return leg failed to materialize due to the lateness of the hour.

Clark and Stewart, of course, are two men who played a part in the history of Spa, where the F1 summer break officially ends as of Thursday. The former won the race four times, in 1962-’65, while the latter played a big part in forcing Grand Prix racing to leave the daunting old track after a scary high-speed race in 1970.

We went back in 1983 to a shortened, safer version of the track, and nearly three decades on, it is firmly established as the most popular venue on the calendar, although Suzuka runs it close.

The transition from tight Hungary to the fast, open Spa could not be greater, so predicting what will happen is impossible, given the way form has been changing race-by-race. And as has so often been the case this year, the fickle Ardennes weather could shake things up.

The key factors in the coming months will be the relentless pace of development as new parts come on stream – and only as this weekend progresses will we learn who has made the best use of the summer break.

After Hungary, Fernando Alonso is 40 points clear of nearest pursuer Mark Webber. Whatever happens this weekend, the Spaniard will definitely still be leading when the circus arrives on Ferrari home ground in Monza.

However, behind Alonso just eight points separate Mark Webber, Sebastian Vettel, Lewis Hamilton and outside title contender Kimi Raikkonen. With 225 points still available, in theory, everyone else on the grid still has a chance. Realistically, the champion will surely be one of those five names, unless Jenson Button has a dramatic turnaround in fortunes.

Alonso has been seeking a third title since 2006, and this could be his year. The Ferrari F2012 was off the pace in the early races, and a canny wet win in Malaysia looked like it might be just a consolation prize.

However, the car has improved and the resourceful Alonso has invariably gotten the most out of it on the day, finishing every race. He has won three times, and yet he doesn’t have the fastest car – the F2012 has not earned a pole in dry weather. It’s his awesome consistency that has ensured he is still comfortably on top, as he has scored in every race. Surprisingly, he’s never won at Spa, although he was second back in 2005.

Spa-Francorchamps is one of the most popular stops on the Formula One tour. (Photo: SPEED.com)

Webber had a terrible season in 2011 in the wake of the previous year’s title defeat. However, he has bounced back, helped by the reduced emphasis on exhaust blowing, with which he never felt comfortable. He’s outqualified RBR teammate Sebastian Vettel several times, and scored superb wins in Monaco and Silverstone.

He lost some momentum with troubled eighth places in the last two races, but he’s still in the fight. The Australian has finished second at Spa for the past two years, and was on pole in 2010, so he can’t be ruled out.

This is a very different season for Vettel, pole man and winner in Belgium in 2011, who really has a challenge on his hands. He won in Bahrain, and crucially has been pretty good at bagging big points elsewhere.

However, retirement while leading in Valencia cost him dearly, as did a scrappy wet race in Malaysia. RBR can never be discounted, as Adrian Newey always seems to pull something out of the bag, and Vettel invariably pushes his car to the limits.

Hamilton has a good Spa record. He won on the road in 2008, only to be demoted by a penalty, and then made up for that with an undisputed victory in 2010. The McLaren ace endured a messy 2011 season but he’s been on better form this year, generally staying out of trouble, and has maintained a serene and confident air out of the car. His wins in Canada and Hungary were superb, but a few below par weekends for McLaren have cost him.

His teammate Button started off the season with a great win in Australia, and his acknowledged sympathy for tires was expected to be a huge plus in his favor. In fact, quite the contrary has happened, and Jenson has struggled to get the most of the Pirellis. He recovered some momentum with a charging second in Germany, but Lewis continues to outshine him. Button’s best Spa result was third in 2005 and again last year.

Many were skeptical about Kimi Raikkonen’s return after two years in rallying, but the doubters have been proven wrong. The Finn has rarely done himself justice in qualifying, but has been superb when it counts in races, staying out of trouble and bringing the car home.

He’s been accused of lacking that final cutting edge – perhaps he should have found a way past Vettel in Bahrain – but his string of five podiums has proven priceless. If the Lotus update package is as good as is expected, and Kimi gets it right in qualifying, he could be a real title threat. He has a stunning record, having won in 2004, 2005, 2007 (from pole) and on his last visit in 2009 with an otherwise hopeless Ferrari. This could be his weekend.

So, what of the rest? Given a rare second chance, Romain Grosjean has grabbed it with both hands, and the 26-year-old has proven the find of the season. He’s usually outqualified teammate Raikkonen, and has put in some good drives, but he has also been involved in many costly incidents in the early laps of races.

In the first part of the season, Nico Rosberg proved so good at gathering points that he began to look like a potential title contender, but Mercedes has gone off the boil of late. If the team gets itself back on track, he could still be a factor. He’s finished sixth for the past two years.

This will be a big weekend for his teammate Michael Schumacher, who scored his first win in Belgium 20 years ago, and also celebrates his 300th race, depending on what statisticians count as a race start!

Schumacher’s Spa record, which also includes wins in 1995, 1996, 1997, 2001 and 2002, speaks for itself. He’s finished seventh and fifth in his two Mercedes starts, and will be hoping to do better this time, if the car shows better form.

It’s also around that time when thoughts turn to 2013, so no doubt Schumacher’s future – along with that of Felipe Massa – will be a major talking point this weekend. However, let’s hope that the real story is on track.

Adam Cooper notched up his 27th season as a racing journalist in 2011. He has written about F1 for SPEED.com since 2005. Follow him on Twitter.
The opinions reflected herein are solely those of the above commentator and are not necessarily those of SPEED.com, FOX, NewsCorp, or SPEED