COOPER: 2012 Season Scenarios

Formula 1

COOPER: 2012 Season Scenarios

Behind the scenes it’s been anything but quiet as all 12 teams are working flat out to ready their cars...

Adam Cooper | http://www.speedtv.com | Posted January 06, 2012 Balen (BEL)

Red Bull Racing Team Members Sebastian Vettel (Left) Mark Webber (Right) celebrate on the podium. (Photo: Getty Images)

It’s been a relatively low-key first week of 2012, with very little hard news on the F1 front. Sebastien Buemi was announced as reserve driver for Red Bull Racing (and hence, rather awkwardly Toro Rosso), while Kimi Raikkonen had a seat fitting at the team we now know at Lotus.

Behind the scenes it’s been anything but quiet of course, as all 12 teams are working flat out to ready their cars – in most cases for a track debut at Jerez on February 7, when testing gets underway.
This seems as good a time as any to catch up on what’s new for 2012, and what the major themes are likely to be. At first glance there’s not a lot new, certainly compared with last year, when we had Pirelli, the return of KERS and the arrival of the DRS.

The big talking point over the coming weeks will be the ban on exhaust blowing of diffusers. In theory that creates something of a re-set, in that the teams that gained the most in 2011 have to take another route. However there is a consensus that some teams will have found some way of circumventing the ban.

Will we get another 2009 double diffuser situation, when everyone had to follow the lead set by Brawn after heated arguments about legality? That’s certainly the fear of a technical director I spoke to this week, who has a few ideas in his pocket, depending on what other people come up with – and how the FIA responds.

There are no driver changes among the four main contenders, but within each there will be fascinating subplots. At Red Bull Racing Mark Webber has to prove that he can get back to the form he showed for much of 2010, and at least be in a position to finish close to his team mate, something that didn’t happen very often last year. Beating Sebastian Vettel is quite another matter, and while the Aussie has a better handle on the tires than a year ago, it’s a big ask.

The big story at RBR will be the ‘will he/won’t he’ ‘retire/move on’ saga. There’s a chance that Webber will sign yet another one year deal for 2013 – if he doesn’t, then the fight for his seat will be a fascinating one, with Daniel Ricciardo and Jean-Eric Vergne of STR the prime candidates, although RBR could surprise us and take a third party.

There’s a similar scenario at Ferrari, where the beleaguered Felipe Massa will have to perform miracles if he is to have any chance of retaining his seat in 2013 – and Fernando Alonso is unlikely to make his life any easier. Among those lining up to replace him are Sergio Perez and Robert Kubica, should the Pole regain race fitness as the season goes on. The big question at Ferrari is how good Pat Fry’s first car will be, and whether the policy of being aggressive with its design will pay off.

Lewis Hamilton had a tumultuous 2011 season at McLaren. (Photo: Getty Images)

At McLaren it will all be about Jenson Button v Lewis Hamilton. The latter ended the season on a high note with his win in Abu Dhabi, and there was a lot of talk about him coming back as a new man in 2012, or rather as the man we saw in 2008 or so. Equally, Button will be under pressure to show that he can carry on the sort of form we saw last year. Still, there’s no escaping the fact that even in a bad year, Hamilton had the better of him in qualifying.

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Adam Cooper

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